The Heckman Curve is Dead
What it means for Public Policy
Few social scientists have been more influential than James Heckman and particularly his Heckman curve which indicates out sized returns to early childhood education and related interventions. Unfortunately as empirical evidence has accumulated the concepts underpinning the Heckman curve have been largely refuted.
The state of the current evidence is that financial investment in human capital is on average roughly equally productive from ages zero to twenty five (although a great deal of variance exists). This leaves open the possibility that in some circumstances adult education continues to have high returns, although this must necessarily decrease as retirement age nears. Of course in some contexts such as avoiding especially adverse prenatal conditions the strong form of the curve will still hold.
If investments in higher education are likely to have similar returns to early childhood investment than the Heckman Curve must, if it is to have any meaningful application for public policy be dead. No doubt some will be disappointed by this news. The idea that early childhood education could be some kind of cure all for social ills was for obvious reasons highly appealing to many. But the curves death is a cause for optimism as well. Perhaps we underestimate the potential for those who have fallen behind in schooling to catch up. Investing in the human capital of those who have fallen by the wayside in life the unemployed, ex-offenders or even mature aged workers who have been unable to complete higher education can also have the kind of windfall gains that supporters of childhood education hope for. In all interventions the returns are real but so is the problem of scaling high quality programs.
New South Wales decision to introduce an extra year of pre kindergarten education has correctly been seen as good news. Enthusiasm for early childhood programs in Australia has been increasing. This seems related to an increasing concern with gender equity and a progressive shift in social beliefs more generally. Billionaire Andrew Forrest has also through his foundation lobbied for a very James Heckman type view of the world recruiting ex premier Jay Weatherill to his cause and garnering significant media attention.
Yet if we are to take the death of the Heckman Curve seriously these trends should give us pause for thought. Australia has serious problems with its education pipeline. Primary school achievement has become increasingly unequal a problem highlighted by the Gonski review but still not addressed. Basic standards like ensuring students are taught by a properly trained mathematics teacher are not met. As the real value of rent assistance declines it becomes increasingly difficult for those who need to live independently of family to complete higher study to do so. A high quality TAFE system remains a challenge due to failed policies of privatization and the higher prestige attributed to university.
If investment in each stage of education has a similar marginal return than an increase in early childhood programs even as other parts of education systems fall in to disrepair is not likely to lead to good results. It increasingly feels that the institutions of upwards mobility in Australian society are becoming less egalitarian and more inaccessible to those who need them most. We run the risk of making human capital development more extensive with more years of education but less intensive with lower quality standards at each stage particularly for the poorest. This is a big risk as many studies have found that universal pre kindergarten may not lead to greater educational outcomes and a large part of the benefits may be effectively due to the provision of childcare.